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Will Iowa & Kansas Decide U.S. Senate Race?

Down the home stretch for the race to control the U.S. Senate, it appears the two states that will determine which party emerges with the majority comes down to Kansas and Iowa.

In Kansas, the more “electable” (according to the GOP establishment) incumbent Pat Roberts is in the fight of his life against an independent (in name only). However, Roberts received some good news from Fox and CNN polls released yesterday, which showed him ahead for the first time in a while. Roberts’ big problem is conservatives. His “Liberty Score” at Conservative Review is only 66%, which is why a recent poll showed him only getting 66% of conservative support. In response, Roberts has brought in both Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz to campaign for him. It looks as if that worked based on the uptick in his numbers.

Despite the independent’s weeks-long polling edge there, I’ve always been skeptical he would actually win for two reasons. One, independents almost never deliver their polling numbers on election day. That’s because of the second reason. Independents just don’t have the ground game of the established parties, so Roberts was always going to out-perform his numbers on November 4th because of that advantage.

In Iowa, where I live, the race is Republican Joni Ernst’s to lose. She has the momentum on the ground, and she’s up against a well-funded by unlikable member of the unpopular Congress in Bruce Braley. He has two other major burdens to overcome: President Obama’s awful approval numbers in the state, and he’s not liked by rural Iowans.

However, just because the race is Ernst’s to lose doesn’t mean she has it wrapped up. Braley cannot win, but Ernst could lose with a gaffe or by throwing her base under the bus these final few weeks. In fact, I’ve heard from several prominent Iowa conservatives who are fearful she will do exactly that in the final two debates, when the issue of marriage/religious liberty is sure to come up given the recent SCOTUS action.

Read more at stevedeace.com


Steve Deace

Talkers Magazine Heavy 100 National Talk Show Host. Author of Rules for Patriots: How Conservatives Can Win Again. Washington Times contributor. Steve's new book Rules for Patriots: How Conservatives Can Win Again is out now.

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